Conspiracy is the belief that certain events or situations are secretly manipulated behind the scenes by powerful forces with negative intent. Conspiracy theories have these 6 things in common:
- An alleged, secret plot
- A group of conspirators
- ‘Evidence’ that seems to support the conspiracy theory
- They falsely suggest that nothing happens by accident and that there are no coincidences; nothing is as it appears and everything is connected
- They divide the world into good or bad
- They scapegoat people and groups
People spread conspiracy theories for different reasons. Most believe they are true. Others deliberately want to provoke, manipulate or target people for political or financial reasons. Beware: They can come from many sources e.g. internet, friends, relatives. Conspiracy theories often target or discriminate against an entire group perceived as the enemy behind a real or imagined threat. They polarize society and fuel violent extremism. While most people who spread conspiracy theories genuinely believe in them, others deploy them cynically to achieve these effects. How conspiracy theories damage?
- They identify an enemy and a secret plot that threatens peoples’ lives or beliefs and spark a defense mechanism, which can fuel discrimination, justify hate crimes and can be exploited by violent extremist groups.
- They spread mistrust in public institutions, which can lead to political apathy or radicalization.
- They spread mistrust in scientific and medical information, which can have serious consequences.
What is a real conspiracy?
Real conspiracies large and small do exist. They are more often centered on single, self-contained events or an individual like an assassination or a coup d’état. They are unearthed by whistle-blowers and the media, using verifiable facts and evidence. Looking for a real conspiracy? In 2006, the U.S. District Court in Washington DC (USA) ruled that major cigarette companies were guilty of conspiracy. For decades, they had hidden evidence of health risks attached to smoking to promote higher sales. (LA Times, 2006)
Why do they flourish?
They often appear as a logical explanation of events or situations which are difficult to understand and bring a false sense of control and agency. This need for clarity is heightened in times of uncertainty like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Are all conspiracy theories completely false?
“One conspiracy theory is that the moon landing was faked, and if that’s true, then that requires the assumption that thousands of employees at NASA have been bribed to keep quiet. … I think you can think of conspiracy theories on a continuum of theories that are just certainly false – for example, the world actually is round, it’s not flat, [whereas] the JFK [assassination] conspiracy theories, it took many years for people to sort of arrive at a conclusion. And there’s some grain of truth to some of those conspiracy theories. But that’s a good example where that’s not as extreme, for example, as the Sandy Hook conspiracy theory, which is clearly false.”
Are they ever true?
“Almost all conspiracy theories are false. [But] there are some disturbing historical examples of conspiracy theories that turned out to be true – for example, the so-called MKUltra conspiracy theory, the belief that the government was administering LSD and other drugs to college students and servicemen. This is all out in the open – the CIA admits this.”
Why is it so hard to disprove a conspiracy theory?
Conspiracy theories often contain so much information and so many different layers of information that any given piece of the puzzle is difficult to evaluate, let alone the conspiracy theory as a whole. Also, conspiracy theories often contain elements that are not falsifiable. That is, they are not possible to objectively test against facts to prove or disprove them.
How to talk to somebody who firmly believes in conspiracy theories?
Many conspiracy theorists are deeply convinced of their beliefs. Their whole life and worldview are centred around them. When talking to somebody who firmly believes in a conspiracy theory be aware that:
- Any argument challenging the conspiracy theory may be taken as proof that you are part of the conspiracy and reinforce the belief.
- They probably believe in more than one conspiracy theory.
- They will probably argue hard to defend their beliefs.
What can you do to stop the spread?
- Encourage open debate and questions.
- Ask detailed questions about their theory in order to trigger self-reflection.
- Enlist trusted former conspiracy theorists who once believed the same thing.
- Be cautious and use a variety of sources around the theme.
- Don’t ridicule. Try to understand why they believe what they believe.
- Show empathy. Often the person may be truly fearful and distressed.
- Go step by step. Focus on simple facts and logic instead of covering every detail.
- Don’t push. Too much pressure might backfire. Leave them time to process and try again.
Are certain people more susceptible to endorsing conspiracy theories than others?
“It has nothing to do with intelligence – there’s no specific link to whether people are high or low intelligence. It’s actually not a product of being on the political right or left. What research does suggest is that people at the political extremes are more likely to hold to conspiracy theories. … The best predictor of conspiracy theories is whether they believe in other conspiracy theories.”
Can personality traits predict the tendency to believe in conspiracy theories?
Rather than a “personality profile” of a conspiracy believer though, the research suggests that people are attracted to conspiracy theories when important psychological needs are frustrated. In particular, epistemic needs (for knowledge and certainty), existential needs (for safety and security), and social needs (to maintain self-esteem) are associated with belief in conspiracy theories.
What motivates conspiracy theorists?
Research suggests that people are attracted to conspiracy theories when certain psychological needs are unmet or frustrated. The first of these needs are epistemic, related to the need for knowledge and certainty. People are looking for answers when important things happen, or during difficult circumstances, and conspiracy theories might be seen to offer some clarity. The other needs are existential – related to the need to feel safe and secure – and social – related to the need to maintain a positive view of the self and our social groups. Conspiracy theories tend to flourish in times of crisis. People are looking for explanations that help them cope when they feel uncertain and powerless. They might also be looking for simple answers that make them feel better, even though this doesn’t work.
What’s the motive behind spreading or clinging to such theories?
“The way I like to think of it is [as] part of a larger dynamic of in-group and out-groups. People have a need to see their own in-group as validated, as correct, and a need to see the other group as having a bogus view of reality. … It’s not necessarily the content of the conspiracy theory – the underlying motive would be for people to see themselves as part of the privileged few who have a view of the world as it really is, which instantly of course creates two groups: believers and nonbelievers.”
Is censorship likely to actually strengthen the conspiracy theorists attitudes?
This is likely, yes. When people believe strongly in a conspiracy theory, it is often difficult to convince them otherwise, and people arguing against conspiracy theories are often seen as part of the conspiracy. This is not my area of expertise, but I suspect that removal of information or censorship or information will be met with severe suspicion amongst people who believe in conspiracy theories. They may search for information elsewhere (e.g., more extreme sources), which could have the consequence of strengthening their attitudes.
Do facts change minds?
Yes, they do. People who believe in conspiracy theories can be persuaded by factual information. Exactly how and when to present that information is a difficult question though. In our research, we have found that efforts to reduce belief in conspiracy theories are more successful if information is presented before, rather than after, the conspiracy theory has taken root: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com. However, other research has shown that debunking misinformation more generally can be more successful after the conspiracy information has been encoded: https://www.pnas.org. More research needs to be done.
(Source of information: interviews with Karen Douglas on https://psychwire.com and Alan Lambert for St. Louis Public Radio)
